Alex Plitsas, Atlantic Council
The agreement signed on March 12, 2025, between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the new Syrian Government with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) at the core offers a potential solution to Syria’s national woes. By uniting these two factions, the pact aims to quell the violence and instability that have ravaged the country for over a decade, promising an end to internal fighting and a unified front against extremist elements like ISIS. The SDF’s battle-hardened expertise, honed alongside U.S. forces in northeastern Syria, combined with HTS’s newfound political authority, could decisively dismantle these threats. Crucially, the deal hinges on protecting minority rights with a particular focus on respecting the Kurdish people as both an independent ethnic group and a key component of a federalized Syria.
This commitment not only addresses the Kurds’ long-standing marginalization but also ensures that other minorities—Christians, Druze, and beyond—find safety in a restructured nation, fostering stability that could ripple outward. The contributions and sacrifices of the Kurdish people to the process of establishing an free Syria cannot be understated or forgotten.
At the regional level, however, significant challenges persist. Israel remains skeptical as a neighbor and continues to view HTS as an untrustworthy threat due to its historical ties to al-Qaeda, despite its recent efforts to rebrand as a governing entity. This distrust complicates Syria’s path to normalization and risks turning the country into a proxy battleground between Israel and Turkey, another key player with its own fraught history with the SDF and the broader Kurdish question. Turkey’s tensions with the SDF, rooted in its concerns over Kurdish autonomy near its borders, may ease under this agreement, which aligns the SDF with a Syrian government Ankara might find more palatable. Yet the delicate balance of regional interests means that Syria’s new leadership must tread carefully, proving its reliability through transparent governance and concrete security measures to disarm lingering extremist factions within HTS’s orbit.
Strategically, the involvement of great powers adds another layer of complexity. The United States, a long-time backer of the SDF, remains undecided on how to engage with HTS. A successful merger between the SDF and the new government could prompt a U.S. withdrawal, especially if Washington sees Syria stabilizing without its direct intervention. However, such a move risks creating a vacuum, particularly as Russia eyes Syrian ports like Tartus to bolster its navy and counter NATO forces in the Mediterranean. Moscow’s growing influence could shift the regional balance, undermining Western interests and potentially destabilizing Syria further if the new government becomes overly reliant on Russian support.
This interplay of local gains and strategic uncertainties underscores the agreement’s dual nature: a hopeful step forward for Syria, yet one shadowed by broader geopolitical stakes. This pact between the SDF and the new Syrian Government is undeniably a good start for a nation desperate for peace. By combining efforts to combat ISIS, protecting minority rights, and laying the groundwork for a federalized structure that respects Kurdish identity, it tackles some of Syria’s deepest wounds. Yet, the road ahead remains fraught with obstacles.
The new Syrian government must act swiftly to address Israel’s security concerns, navigate Turkey’s regional ambitions, and manage the great power rivalry between the U.S. and Russia. Success will depend on its ability to transform this fragile alliance into a robust, inclusive system—one that not only heals Syria internally but also reassures a skeptical world. For now, the agreement stands as a fragile lifeline, its potential tempered by the unresolved tensions that continue to shape the region and beyond.
Alex Plitsas is a nonresident senior fellow with the Middle East Programs’ Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, and leads the Initiative’s Counter-Terrorism Project. Additionally, he is currently a principal and industry director for aerospace and defense and high-tech electronics at Providence Consulting Group.