Ibrahim al-Assil, Middle East Institute
Syria’s political landscape has undergone a major shift with the recently announced agreement between the predominantly Kurdish and American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the transitional Syrian government. After weeks of negotiations, this deal signals a potential breakthrough in the country’s long and complex path to reunification. However, the agreement remains fraught with ambiguity, and whether it can truly bridge one of Syria’s most enduring rifts remains to be seen.
Following the unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Syria remained fragmented among competing factions. The SDF, which has functioned as a de facto autonomous entity in northeastern Syria since 2016, controls oil-rich and strategically vital territories. Negotiations between Ahmad al-Sharaa’s government in Damascus and the SDF began immediately after Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entered Damascus, but efforts to integrate the Kurdish-led force into Syrian state structures faced serious disagreements on governance, security control, and the SDF’s status within the Syrian military and political framework.
The timing of this agreement is critical. It comes amid a historic call by Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned founder of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), on the movement to lay down arms and dissolve itself. While Öcalan’s message was primarily directed at Turkey, it has had ripple effects across the region, signaling a broader shift in Kurdish political calculations in Syria as well. For years, Turkey has challenged the Kurdish aspirations in Syria, launching multiple military operations to weaken the SDF and prevent the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish entity along its border. While Ankara remains opposed to Kurdish self-rule, Öcalan’s call for de-escalation has eased regional tensions and allowed the SDF to consolidate its position within Syria. This move also enables the SDF to avoid direct confrontation with Turkey at a time when the future of the presence of the American troops in Syria remains uncertain.
The significance of this agreement extends beyond Kurdish-Damascus relations. It represents a crucial attempt to mend one of Syria’s deepest internal divides and could have far-reaching security implications. The Islamic State (ISIS) remains a persistent threat, particularly in eastern Syria. A unified front between the Syrian army and the SDF could lead to more effective counterterrorism operations, filling security gaps that ISIS has repeatedly exploited.
The deal has also encouraged other groups, particularly the Druze in southern Syria, to consider further alignment with Damascus. If successful, this could accelerate reintegration efforts and contribute to stability in other contested areas.
The bloodiest events in Syria since the fall of the regime are taking place in the coastal region where Al-Sharaa is facing the most serious challenge. An insurgency led by remnants of Assad’s forces has ignited sectarian tensions, resulting in significant casualties among security forces and massacres targeting Alawite civilians committed by forces linked to the government but not integrated into it yet. The agreement between Damascus and the SDF provides Ahmad al-Sharaa with much-needed political legitimacy as he seeks to establish control over the coastal mountains and cities.
There are discussions about whether the SDF might also play a role in stabilizing the coastal regions. Given the Kurdish forces’ disciplined military structure and experience in counterterrorism operations, they could help diffuse sectarian tensions and collaborate with the Syrian army in combating Assad-remnant militias, which remain a serious threat. However, the details of such an arrangement remain unclear, and much will depend on evolving political and military calculations.
While the agreement is a significant milestone, it leaves many critical issues unresolved. One major challenge is the ambiguity surrounding its implementation. The deal places key SDF-controlled border crossings, an airport, and vital oil and gas fields under the administration of Damascus, but it remains unclear how the SDF’s military forces will be integrated into Syria’s defense ministry and what type of political system will be implemented. These issues have been primary sticking points in negotiations and could determine the success or failure of the deal. Furthermore, the risk of political fragmentation remains high.
While the leadership of both sides appears committed to the agreement, obstacles in the details might emerge to hinder implementation.Additionally, the role of external powers, particularly the United States, adds another layer of uncertainty. Washington, which has provided military and financial support to the SDF, has welcomed the agreement but has yet to clarify its stance on the transitional government in Damascus, which remains under heavy sanctions. The U.S. now faces a complex dilemma: it supports one of the entities involved in the merger while actively sanctioning the other. How Washington navigates this contradiction could heavily influence the agreement’s viability, particularly in shaping its security and governance aspects.
The agreement between the SDF and Damascus represents a historic step in Syria’s ongoing post-war realignment, but it is not without risks. While it has the potential to stabilize key regions, enhance Syria’s counterterrorism efforts, and encourage broader national reconciliation, the road ahead remains uncertain. The will to move forward appears to be there, but whether this marks a genuine path toward unity or yet another fragile truce in Syria’s long and turbulent history will depend on the next steps taken by all parties involved.
Dr. Ibrahim al-Assil is a political scientist and Middle East scholar. He is a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, and a Professorial Lecturer at George Washington University